Nominations voting is from January 11–16, 2024, with official Oscar nominations announced on January 23, 2024. Final voting is February 22–27, 2024. And finally, the 96th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 10, and air live on ABC at 8 p.m. ET/ 5 p.m. PT. We update predictions through awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2024 Oscar picks.

The State of the Race

Over the first half of 2023, an early Oscar favorite has emerged with Sony’s “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” which has surpassed its Oscar-winning predecessor at the box office ($378 million domestically and $682 million globally) and upped its game with a more expansive story and greater animated tech innovations. Producers Phil Lord and Chris Miller and new directors Joaquim Dos Santos (“The Legend of Korra”), Kemp Powers (“Soul” co-director), and Justin K. Thompson (“Into the Spider-Verse” production designer) hurled Miles Morales (Shameik Moore) and Spider-Gwen (Hailee Steinfeld) into several new dimensions to battle Spot (Jason Schwartzman), including Gwen’s watercolor world and the India-inspired Mumbattan. And for that, Sony Pictures Imageworks created innovative tools for translating more elaborate 2D stylization into 3D with new systems for using pencil, pen and ink, markers, and paintbrushes.

Nominations voting is from January 11–16, 2024, with official Oscar nominations announced on January 23, 2024. Final voting is February 22–27, 2024. And finally, the 96th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 10, and air live on ABC at 8 p.m. ET/ 5 p.m. PT. We update predictions through awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2024 Oscar picks.

The State of the Race

Over the first half of 2023, an early Oscar favorite has emerged with Sony’s “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” which has surpassed its Oscar-winning predecessor at the box office ($378 million domestically and $682 million globally) and upped its game with a more expansive story and greater animated tech innovations. Producers Phil Lord and Chris Miller and new directors Joaquim Dos Santos (“The Legend of Korra”), Kemp Powers (“Soul” co-director), and Justin K. Thompson (“Into the Spider-Verse” production designer) hurled Miles Morales (Shameik Moore) and Spider-Gwen (Hailee Steinfeld) into several new dimensions to battle Spot (Jason Schwartzman), including Gwen’s watercolor world and the India-inspired Mumbattan. And for that, Sony Pictures Imageworks created innovative tools for translating more elaborate 2D stylization into 3D with new systems for using pencil, pen and ink, markers, and paintbrushes.......

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Potential nominees are listed in alphabetical order; no film will be deemed a frontrunner until we have seen it.

Frontrunners

“Elemental”
“Nimona”
“Suzume”
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
“The First Slam Dunk”

Contenders

“Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget”
“Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia”
“Migration”
“Robot Dreams”
“Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem”
“The Boy and the Heron”
“The Inventor”
“The Super Mario Brothers Movie”
“They Shot the Piano Player”
“Trolls Band Together”
“Wish”

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An early frontrunner has emerged with “The First Slam Dunk” (GKids), Takehiko Inoue’s superb anime adaptation of his hugely popular basketball manga series (“Slam Dunk”). Made by Toei Animation, the 3D/2D drama has become the fifth highest-grossing anime of all time and won the Japan Academy Prize for Best Animated Film. It’s about a high school championship game between underdog Shohoku and perennial champs Sannoh, which turns into a psychological rite of passage through the overcoming of pain and hardship.

Pixar’s “Elemental” is also an early frontrunner, despite its dismal box-office performance and mixed reviews. Peter Sohn ambitiously leveraged his parents’ immigrant story for the studio’s first rom-com about the seemingly impossible pairing of the fiery Ember (Leah Lewis) and the watery Wade (Mamoudou Athie). Set in Element City, where fire, water, air, and earth co-exist despite their fundamental differences, the film represents one of Pixar’s greatest tech accomplishments, in which VFX touched every shot because of the simulated characters and environments. The movie is touching in its evocation of obligation and desire, but the strength of the Pixar brand doesn’t guarantee a nomination.

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